Statistically downscaled scenarios of projected minimum temperature change

Statistically downscaled multi-model ensembles of projected change (also known as anomalies) in minimum temperature (°C) are available at a 10km spatial resolution for 1951-2100. Statistically downscaled ensembles are based on output from twenty-four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCM). Daily minimum temperature from GCM outputs were downscaled using the Bias Correction/Constructed Analogues with Quantile mapping version 2 (BCCAQv2). A historical gridded minimum temperature dataset of Canada (ANUSPLIN) was used as the downscaling target.

Projected change in minimum temperature (°C) is with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005. Seasonal and annual averages of projected minimum temperature change to 1986-2005 are provided. Specifically, the 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of the downscaled ensembles of minimum temperature change are available for the historical time period, 1901-2005, and for emission scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for 2006-2100.

Twenty-year average changes in statistically downscaled mean minimum temperature (°C) for four time periods (2021-2040; 2041-2060; 2061-2080; 2081-2100), with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005, for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are also available in a range of formats. The median projected change across the ensemble of downscaled CMIP5 climate models is provided.

Note: Projections among climate models can vary because of differences in their underlying representation of earth system processes. Thus, the use of a multi-model ensemble approach has been demonstrated in recent scientific literature to likely provide better projected climate change information.

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Last Updated October 22, 2024, 17:27 (UTC)
Created October 1, 2024, 08:25 (UTC)
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Climatology Meteorology Atmosphere
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2018-09-06
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Environment and Climate Change Canada | Environnement et Changement climatique Canada
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Government of Canada; Environment and Climate Change Canada, 819-997-2800, enviroinfo@ec.gc.ca
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ec.ccds.info-info.dscc.ec@canada.ca
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https://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/3156e7bf-6f11-46f7-b70a-51b6d4e3835b
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